Aruanded

Cheap oil: the new normal?

Economic Note

  • Brazil,
  • Mexico,
  • General economic

20 apr 2015

We forecast the oil price will start rising in the fourth quarter of 2015 to USD 75 on average in 2016. Discover the impact on sectors and countries across the globe.

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    Country Report Peru 2015

    Country Report

    • Peru
    • Agriculture,
    • Automotive/Transport,

    23 märts 2015

    Peru’s economic growth is expected to accelerate in 2015 spurred by lower interest rates, two mega mining projects, strong demand and public investment in infrastructure projects.

    Country Report Colombia

    Country Report

    • Colombia
    • Agriculture,
    • Automotive/Transport,

    23 märts 2015

    In 2015, Colombia’s economic performance is expected to slow down somewhat (to 3.8%) due to lower commodity prices, while robust domestic demand should sustain growth.

    Country Report Chile

    Country Report

    • Chile
    • Agriculture,
    • Automotive/Transport,

    23 märts 2015

    In 2015, Chile is forecast to see a decrease in inflation and an increase in economic growth.

    Country Report Argentina

    Country Report

    • Argentina
    • Agriculture,
    • Automotive/Transport,

    23 märts 2015

    Argentina’s economy contracted 1.6% in 2014, and this negative trend is expected to continue in 2015, as exchange and price controls are forcing producers to scale back their activities.

    Country Report Italy 2015

    Country Report

    • Italy
    • Agriculture,
    • Automotive/Transport,

    02 märts 2015

    Italian GDP is expected to grow after three years of contraction. Domestic demand is forecast to stabilise as investments and household consumption are expected to accelerate.

    Market Monitor - Construction industry - UAE

    Market Monitor

    • United Arab Emirates
    • Construction

    19 veebr 2015

    Problems remain in the building sectors of most of the countries covered in this issue of the Market Monitor. Consequently, the outlook for the construction industry in 2015 remains muted.

    Market Monitor - Construction industry - Turkey

    Market Monitor

    • Turkey
    • Construction

    19 veebr 2015

    Problems remain in the building sectors of most of the countries covered in this issue of the Market Monitor. Consequently, the outlook for the construction industry in 2015 remains muted.

    Market Monitor - Construction industry - Japan

    Market Monitor

    • Japan
    • Construction

    19 veebr 2015

    Problems remain in the building sectors of most of the countries covered in this issue of the Market Monitor. Consequently, the outlook for the construction industry in 2015 remains muted.

    Market Monitor - Construction industry - India

    Market Monitor

    • India
    • Construction

    19 veebr 2015

    Problems remain in the building sectors of most of the countries covered in this issue of the Market Monitor. Consequently, the outlook for the construction industry in 2015 remains muted.

    Market Monitor - Construction industry - Australia

    Market Monitor

    • Australia
    • Construction

    19 veebr 2015

    Problems remain in the building sectors of most of the countries covered in this issue of the Market Monitor. Consequently, the outlook for the construction industry in 2015 remains muted.

    Market Monitor - Construction industry - Germany

    Market Monitor

    • Germany
    • Construction

    19 veebr 2015

    In 2015 we expect the construction sector in Germany to perform well and construction insolvencies to decrease by 3%, less than the 5% decrease forecast for business insolvencies in Germany overall.

    Market Monitor - Construction industry - Brazil

    Market Monitor

    • Brazil
    • Construction

    19 veebr 2015

    After a modest growth of 0.5 % in 2014, the construction output in Brazil is expected to grow at more or less the same level in 2015.

    Market Monitor - Construction industry - United States

    Market Monitor

    • USA
    • Construction

    19 veebr 2015

    A 9 % increase is forecast for the US construction sector in 2015; the vast majority of construction and design firm executives believe the market is stable or growing.

    Market Monitor - Construction industry - United Kingdom

    Market Monitor

    • United Kingdom
    • Construction

    19 veebr 2015

    It is expected that construction output growth will continue in the UK in 2015 and also continue to broaden out beyond house building.

    Market Monitor - Construction industry: France

    Market Monitor

    • France
    • Construction

    19 veebr 2015

    While French business insolvencies are forecast to level off in 2015, it is expected that construction business failures will further increase due to the low economic growth forecast for France.

    Market Monitor - Construction industry - Belgium

    Market Monitor

    • Belgium
    • Construction

    19 veebr 2015

    With poor demand, on-going pressure on prices and a high number of insolvencies, the construction sector in Belgium is going through difficult times.

    Insolvency Forecasts February 2015

    Economic Outlook

    • Australia,
    • Austria,
    • General economic

    18 veebr 2015

    Economic conditions in the Eurozone remain challenging with insolvencies still 70% higher than in 2007 on average.

    Impact China slowdown

    Economic Outlook

    • Australia,
    • Singapore,
    • General economic

    04 veebr 2015

    A sharp Chinese economic slowdown will affect countries through their exports and commodity prices. Especially countries in Asia and Africa are vulnerable.

    Country report Thailand

    Country Report

    • Thailand
    • Agriculture,
    • Automotive/Transport,

    02 veebr 2015

    Thailand ́s open and export-oriented economy is expected to benefit from a modest global recovery this year.

    Country report The Philippines

    Country Report

    • Philippines
    • Agriculture,
    • Automotive/Transport,

    02 veebr 2015

    Since 2012, economic growth has been high, driven by private consumption which accounts for about 70% of the economy. Growth has also been sustained by rising demand for exports.

    Country report Malaysia

    Country Report

    • Malaysia
    • Agriculture,
    • Automotive/Transport,

    02 veebr 2015

    Malaysia’s business environment is considered to be far more favourable than that of its regional neighbours, apart from Singapore, and the financial sector is strong.

    Market Monitor - Construction industry -The Netherlands

    Market Monitor

    • Netherlands
    • Construction

    02 veebr 2015

    As in 2013 and 2014, fierce competition means that the Dutch construction sector is still affected by price wars, leading to on-going pressure on margins.

    Country Report Mexico

    Country Report

    • Mexico
    • Agriculture,
    • Automotive/Transport,

    12 jaan 2015

    The swift implementation of reforms would further strengthen Mexico ́s already solid external economic situation by boosting FDI and reducing dependency on volatile portfolio capital inflows.

    Country Report India

    Country Report

    • India
    • Agriculture,
    • Automotive/Transport,

    01 jaan 2015

    India’s rebound is expected to be driven by the resumption of stalled infrastructure projects, high investment, urbanisation, the improvement of the business environment and structural reforms.

    Country Report China

    Country Report

    • China
    • Agriculture,
    • Automotive/Transport,

    30 dets 2014

    Although economic growth is slowing, the business environment is generally stable. The challenge for the Chinese authorities is to implement reforms to reduce the vulnerabilities in the economy.

    Market Monitor - Focus on the food industry - Poland

    Market Monitor

    • Poland
    • Food

    01 dets 2014

    Despite several bans which affected the Polish food sector negatively, this has performed quite well, mainly because of the rising domestic consumption.

    Market Monitor - Focus on the food industry - Denmark

    Market Monitor

    • Denmark
    • Food

    01 dets 2014

    Payments in the Danish food sector remained unchanged and are, on average, 30 days.

    Market Monitor- Focus on the food industry -Netherlands

    Market Monitor

    • Netherlands
    • Food

    01 dets 2014

    The Netherlands is the second largest exporter of food and agricultural products. The weakening of the euro gave a boost to further export growth.

    Market Monitor - Focus on the food industry - Germany

    Market Monitor

    • Germany
    • Food

    01 dets 2014

    The German food sector has continued to grow in the first half of 2014. Domestically, there is increased competition caused by large retailers and discounters’ dominating market share.

    Market Monitor - Focus on the food industry - France

    Market Monitor

    • France
    • Food

    01 dets 2014

    The French food sector has benefited from falling raw material prices and a weaker euro, which helps boost competitiveness abroad.

    Country Report Turkey

    Country Report

    • Turkey
    • Agriculture,
    • Automotive/Transport,

    03 nov 2014

    Without structural reforms to raise savings, reduce dependency on energy imports and improve the investment climate, Turkey ́s potential growth rate will likely decrease to 3% - 3.5% per annum.

    Payment Practices Barometer Asia Pacific

    Payment Practices Barometer

    • Australia,
    • Japan,
    • Agriculture

    01 nov 2014

    Concerns that credit quality could be deteriorating in several countries in Asia Pacific are growing.

    Payment Practices Barometer Taiwan

    Payment Practices Barometer

    • Taiwan
    • Agriculture,
    • Automotive/Transport,

    01 nov 2014

    When Taiwanese respondents were asked about the main challenges to their business profitability this year, 43.5% answered that maintaining adequate cash flow was the most critical factor.

    Payment Practices Barometer Singapore

    Payment Practices Barometer

    • Singapore
    • Agriculture,
    • Automotive/Transport,

    01 nov 2014

    The main challenge to profitability cited by our survey respondents in Singapore was “maintaining adequate cash flow”, at 31.7%.

    Payment Practices Barometer Japan

    Payment Practices Barometer

    • Japan
    • Agriculture,
    • Automotive/Transport,

    01 nov 2014

    43.8% of Japanese respondents said that the biggest challenge to business profitability was falling demand for their products and services, the highest percentage of all Asia Pacific nations surveyed.

    Payment Practices Barometer Indonesia

    Payment Practices Barometer

    • Indonesia
    • Agriculture,
    • Automotive/Transport,

    01 nov 2014

    Indonesian respondents said that 37.1% of overdue receivables were paid within 30 days, slightly above average for the region.

    Payment Practices Barometer India

    Payment Practices Barometer

    • India
    • Agriculture,
    • Automotive/Transport,

    01 nov 2014

    Indian respondents were aligned with their peers in Asia Pacific in citing “maintaining adequate cash flow” as their biggest challenge.

    Payment Practices Barometer Hong Kong

    Payment Practices Barometer

    • Hong Kong
    • Agriculture,
    • Automotive/Transport,

    01 nov 2014

    Respondents in Hong Kong indicated that their biggest challenge to profitability this year would be maintaining adequate cash flow, with 37.4% stating this to be the case.

    Payment Practices Barometer Australia

    Payment Practices Barometer

    • Australia
    • Agriculture,
    • Automotive/Transport,

    01 nov 2014

    When questioned about the biggest challenges to their business profitability this year, 36.2% of Australians responded that maintaining adequate cash flow was their key challenge.

    Market Monitor- Focus on automotive industry -Germany

    Market Monitor

    • Germany
    • Automotive/Transport

    01 okt 2014

    The German automotive sector has benefited increasing domestic production as well as a growing share of car production overseas.

    Market Monitor - Automotive industry - United Kingdom

    Market Monitor

    • United Kingdom
    • Automotive/Transport

    01 okt 2014

    The UK car market continued to grow last year. Compared to other UK industries, the automotive sector’s default and insolvency rate is good, with a stable outlook.

    Market Monitor - Automotive industry - Spain

    Market Monitor

    • Spain
    • Automotive/Transport

    01 okt 2014

    The automotive sector was hit hard by the economic crisis, as lower domestic consumption and difficulties accessing finance led to a slump in the car market. However, a rebound began in 2013.

    Market Monitor - Automotive industry - Italy

    Market Monitor

    • Italy
    • Automotive/Transport

    01 okt 2014

    Payments in the Italian automotive industry range between 60-90 to 120-150 days, depending on the end-buyer and whether working capital requirements can be obtained from banks or suppliers.

    Market Monitor - Automotive industry - France

    Market Monitor

    • France
    • Automotive/Transport

    01 okt 2014

    The downward trend in the French automotive industry appears to have bottomed out, and there are signs of a modest rebound.

    Market Monitor - Automotive industry - China

    Market Monitor

    • China
    • Automotive/Transport

    01 okt 2014

    Although China ́s economic growth is forecast to slow down in 2014, there are many positive catalysts for the car industry , and we expect a second straight year of strong growth.

    Country Report Russia

    Country Report

    • Russia
    • Agriculture,
    • Automotive/Transport,

    01 sept 2014

    Russia ́s fiscal position still looks robust. Public debt has been relatively stable at 8% since the global credit crisis of 2008/2009 and is even set to decline in 2015.

    Payment Practices Barometer Brazil

    Payment Practices Barometer

    • Brazil
    • Agriculture,
    • Automotive/Transport,

    01 sept 2014

    33.5% of respondents in Brazil reported that maintaining sufficient cash flow levels will be their biggest challenge to their business profitability.

    Payment Practices Barometer the Americas

    Payment Practices Barometer

    • Brazil,
    • Canada,
    • Agriculture

    01 sept 2014

    Over 50% of very late payments went uncollected by businesses in the Americas.

    Market Monitor - Focus on the steel industry - Turkey

    Market Monitor

    • Turkey
    • Steel

    01 sept 2014

    Despite a drop in output of 3.4 % to 34.65 million tons, Turkey kept its position as the world’s 8th largest steel producer.

    Market Monitor - Focus on the steel industry - Russia

    Market Monitor

    • Russia
    • Steel

    01 sept 2014

    Russian domestic consumption of steel products has developed better than demand from overseas markets.