Aruanded

GDP expected to grow above 5% in 2016 due to robust private consumption, but the business environment remains difficult.

Economic performance impacted by slower growth in China and Southeast Asia.

High household indebtedness weighs on private consumption, and exports are affected by the slowdown in China.

Le fort endettement pèse sur la consommation des ménages, et les exportations sont affectées par le ralentissement économique chinois.

Productivity increases and economic diversification are the main long-term challenges.

Stable growth (up 6.4% in 2016) and inflation back under control, but the economic fundamentals still show some weaknesses.

Atradius picks the top 8 markets for business opportunities in 2016. These emerging markets have been showing strong performances over the past three years and are expected to improve further in 2016.

The first increase in US interest rates in almost 10 years may lead to trouble in emerging markets.

Food exports grew 2.1% in 2014 and are expected to increase further in 2015.

The French food industry has benefited from falling raw material prices and a weaker euro, which helped boost competitiveness abroad.

Due to the weaker exchange rate and increased demand from overseas markets, Dutch food exports increased in 2015 and are expected to rise further in 2016.

Italian profit margins have decreased in 2015 but are expected to remain stable in 2016.

In 2015, Polish food exports are expected to reach a historical peak.

Profitability of food producers has increased in 2014 and is expected to remain stable in 2015.

The Irish food sector has benefited from the weaker euro, the rebound of the Irish economy and growing consumer confidence.

Prices for food have grown and local production has increased in order to subsitute lacking imports.

The average payment duration in the Spanish food industry is 70 days.

Food business insolvencies are expected to increase by about 15% in 2015.

Profit margins of food businesses in the United States are expected to remain stable in 2016.

Natural gas prices have fallen significantly in Asia and Europe on the back of the sliding oil price. As more LNG comes on the market regional prices are set to remain low.

Robust growth rates persist, but lower exports hurt the manufacturing sector.

Crucial reforms have been passed, but their proper implementation remains to be seen.

Growth is expected to slow down, while business insolvencies to increase in 2015 and 2016.

Atradius survey shows an uptick in late payment of B2B invoices in China, which can have a knock-on effect on the liquidity of some businesses in several countries in Asia Pacific.

Nearly half of the respondents in Australia said that the risk of payment delay and default from B2B buyers has increased over the past six months. One in five respondents rated it as “significant”.

62.0% of the businesses surveyed in China (compared to 46.3% in Asia Pacific) reported that domestic B2B customers have slowed invoice payment due to liquidity problems over the past year.

92.1% of respondents in Hong Kong (compared to 90.2% of respondents in Asia Pacific) reported having experienced invoice late payment from their B2B customers over the past year.

38.8% of respondents in India (29.6% in Asia Pacific) said domestic B2B customers pay invoices late intentionally, to use trade credit as a way of alternatively financing their business operations.

30% of survey respondents in Indonesia reported that payment on domestic B2B invoices is received late due to the formal insolvency of the buyer (respondents in Asia Pacific: 21.4%).

Most of the survey respondents in Japan (32.5%, notably above the 23% in Asia Pacific) consider cost containment to be the biggest challenge to business profitability this year.

21.5% respondents in Singapore versus 17.4% in Asia Pacific consider a likely drop in demand for their products and services as the biggest challenge to business profitability in 2015.

32.5% of respondents in Taiwan compared to 25.8% in Asia Pacific said that domestic B2B customers pay invoices late most often due to disputes over the quality of goods delivered or services provided.

Global trade growth has slowed significantly in recent years. For 2015, Atradius predicts just 1% international trade growth. This implies a difficult environment for exporters.

Russia remains an important market in the global economy. The ten principles of the report are meant to help businesses mitigate risks when exporting to Russia.

Due to Brazil’s economic slump and problems along the whole domestic automotive value chain we expect both payment delays and defaults to continue to worsen markedly in the coming months.

Despite the current slowdown the Chinese car market still provides robust growth potential.

After subsequent years of production decreases French subcontractors and suppliers have benefited from the rebound of the French and the European automotive sector.

Like other Spanish industries, the automotive sector was hard hit by the economic crisis, as lower domestic consumption and difficulty accessing financing led to a slump in the car market.

A major strength of the British car manufacturing industry is its diversity, with a mix of volume, premium and specialist producers.

In the period January 2015 - August 2015 domestic car production and exports both grew 2%, while new car registrations in Germany rose 6%.

Thanks to the strong recovery seen since H2 of 2014 many of Italy’s car suppliers have registered increasing profit margins and an improvement of their financial strength.

Japanese automotive businesses´profit margins have generally improved, mainly due to higher sales in North America.

In Slovakia, payment behaviour is generally good with a low number of non-payment notificiations, and this is expected to remain unchanged in the coming months.

Payment behaviour in the Swedish automotive sector is quite stable, and insolvencies are not expected to increase in the coming months.

Thailand´s automotive sectors is characterised by high entry barriers as the players in the market are large multinationals with strong financials and good know-how.

Payment behaviour in the US automotive sector has been rather good over the past two years.

Economic growth in the resource-rich Brazil continues to remain under pressure due to a combination of a credit crunch, rising interest rates and weakening demand.

One in three businesses surveyed in Brazil, Canada, Mexico and the United States reported that around one-fifth of the value of their B2B receivables is more than 90 days overdue.

Inflation is expected to remain high in 2015, at around 7%, while the current account deficit is expected to remain at the same level as in 2014 (5.7% of GDP).

The Polish economy is expected to benefit from low energy prices and the rebound in the Eurozone, with GDP expected to grow 3.5% in 2015, based on robust domestic demand and increasing exports.