Aruanded

Cheap oil: the new normal?

Economic Note

  • Brazil,
  • Mexico,
  • General economic

20 apr 2015

We forecast the oil price will start rising in the fourth quarter of 2015 to USD 75 on average in 2016. Discover the impact on sectors and countries across the globe.

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Industry Performance Forecast

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    CEE Country Report - Hungary

    Country Report

    • Hungary
    • Agriculture,
    • Automotive/Transport,

    21 sept 2015

    Economic growth is expected to continue in 2015 and 2016, although at a slower pace: by 3.0% and 2.4% respectively.

    CEE Country Report - Czech Republic

    Country Report

    • Czech Republic
    • Agriculture,
    • Automotive/Transport,

    21 sept 2015

    Due to robust domestic demand and benign economic conditions in the Eurozone, Czech GDP is expected to grow 3.0% in 2015 and 3.1% in 2016.

    China stock market crash limited impact on real economy

    Economic Note

    • China
    • General economic

    16 sept 2015

    The impact of the Chinese stock market crunch of this summer and the renminbi devaluation should not be overestimated. The main long-term risk is an accelerating economic slowdown.

    Market Monitor - Focus on steel and metals - USA

    Market Monitor

    • USA
    • Metals,
    • Steel

    10 sept 2015

    The tubular goods segment is hit hard by the end of the oil boom, with insolvencies expected to increase.

    Market Monitor - Focus on steel and metals - Turkey

    Market Monitor

    • Turkey
    • Metals,
    • Steel

    10 sept 2015

    Decreasing profitability due to foreign exchange losses and rising insolvencies.

    Market Monitor - Focus on steel and metals - Mexico

    Market Monitor

    • Mexico
    • Metals,
    • Steel

    10 sept 2015

    Higher domestic steel consumption, but exchange rate volatility is expected to cause more payment delays.

    Market Monitor - Focus on steel and metals - UK

    Market Monitor

    • United Kingdom
    • Metals,
    • Steel

    10 sept 2015

    Lower construction growth and overcapacity affect the sector, but the outlook for 2016 has improved.

    Market Monitor - Focus on steel and metals - Poland

    Market Monitor

    • Poland
    • Metals,
    • Steel

    10 sept 2015

    A rebound driven by construction recovery, but increased foreign competition affects businesses´ margins.

    Market Monitor - Focus on steel and metals - Italy

    Market Monitor

    • Italy
    • Metals,
    • Steel

    10 sept 2015

    The outlook for the industry remains subdued, with many Smaller steel mills struggling with poor operating margins.

    Market Monitor - Focus on steel and metals - India

    Market Monitor

    • India
    • Metals,
    • Steel

    10 sept 2015

    Land acquisition issues in setting up greenfield projects, delays in environmental clearances, logistics support and external financing remain major issues

    Market Monitor - Focus on steel and metals - Germany

    Market Monitor

    • Germany
    • Metals,
    • Steel

    10 sept 2015

    German steel producers and distributors are facing structural challenges, as lower steel prices and competition from Asia hit margins.

    Market Monitor - Focus on steel & metals - Netherlands

    Market Monitor

    • Netherlands
    • Metals,
    • Steel

    10 sept 2015

    Insolvencies have decreased in 2014 and are expected to level off in 2015. The insolvency level in this segment is quite low.

    Market Monitor - Focus on steel and metals - Canada

    Market Monitor

    • Canada
    • Metals,
    • Steel

    10 sept 2015

    Competition in the sector is high, and there are clear signs of price wars as the industry is struggling with overcapacity and weaker demand.

    Market Monitor - Focus on steel and metals - Belgium

    Market Monitor

    • Belgium
    • Metals,
    • Steel

    10 sept 2015

    Structural overcapacity in the industry had a negative effect on businesses´ profit margins in 2014, and this negative trend is expected to continue in 2015.

    Economic Research - The Brexit question

    Economic Note

    • United Kingdom
    • General economic

    02 sept 2015

    Atradius identifies the most likely outcome of the UK’s in-out referendum set for 2017 and the sectors and countries most vulnerable to Brexit.

    Country Report Australia

    Country Report

    • Australia
    • Agriculture,
    • Automotive/Transport,

    03 aug 2015

    In 2015, Australian business insolvencies are expected to increase slightly by 2% as economic growth slows down and the mining industry faces mounting troubles.

    Insolvency Forecasts August 2015

    Economic Outlook

    • Australia,
    • Austria,
    • General economic

    01 aug 2015

    The insolvency outlook for 2015 has weakened and difficulties are expected to continue into 2016.

    Market Monitor - Focus on machinery - Japan

    Market Monitor

    • Japan
    • Machines/Engineering

    31 juuli 2015

    The sector benefits from higher machinery investments as the Japanese economic recovery is on track (GDP is expected to grow 1.0% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016 after a modest contraction in 2014).

    Market Monitor - Focus on machinery - Germany

    Market Monitor

    • Germany
    • Machines/Engineering

    31 juuli 2015

    In 2015 production is expected to increase at around 2%, the same level as in 2014.

    Market Monitor - Focus on machinery - Brazil

    Market Monitor

    • Brazil
    • Machines/Engineering

    31 juuli 2015

    The machinery sector in Brazil is being severely impacted by an economic downturn (Brazilian GDP is expected to contract 1.5% in 2015).