Aruanded

A potential downside risk would be another deterioration in house prices, given high levels of mortgage debt and banks’ exposure to the housing market.

A potential downside risk to the economic performance could be the high household debt in case of sharp house price decreases and interest rate increases.

With the rebound of economic growth, business failures are expected to decrease year-on-year in 2018, but nevertheless to remain on an elevated level.

British business insolvencies are expected to rise again in 2018, mainly affecting businesses active in the construction, retail and hospitality sectors.

The number of brick-and-mortar stores has significantly decreased - despite the fact that high street also benefits from the current sales increase.

The best way for smaller retailers to survive is to join a large purchasing association and to compete with e-commerce by providing outstanding service.

The business environment is highly competitive among the different distribution networks, reinforced by the increasing market share of online retailers.

The growing insecurity over US trade policy pushes the European Union and trading partners to speed up the completion of free trade agreement negotiations

By raising tariffs on steel and aluminium the US president has proudly delivered on a campaign promise. US steel and aluminium producers gain, but it comes at the expense of US metal consuming firms.

The global economy is in a sweet spot of broad-based economic growth and low interest rates, but we expect this to be bottoming out in 2018.